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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Semi-State Match-ups: Winchester vs. Brownstown Central

With the games for 1A already covered, P-Hoops will now turn to the great match-ups in the 2A class. Let's start by looking at the 2A game at the Southport Semi-State, which pits the Golden Falcons of Winchester against the Braves of Brownstown Central. Winchester is one of the hottest teams in the state, winning seventeen games in a row and climbing to fourth in the 2A polls, while the Braves are a bit of an underdog, outside of the rankings, but a great team on a winning run as well. Let's start by going deep with the Golden Falcons, last year's 2A State Runners-up.

Winchester

Coach: Chip Mehaffey is an Indiana coaching legend who earned his 300th career win earlier this season. In twenty years of coaching, he has amassed a 305-148 record. In his 13 seasons at Winchester, his record is an astounding 241-68, which includes eight sectionals, six regionals, and three semi-state titles, falling in the title game all three times. Mehaffey endured some instability at the start of the year, which many speculated could lead to his resignation, but things have calmed down since then.

Scoring Averages: Winchester scores an impressive 70.5 points per game and allows only 50.7 points against.

Roster: by scoring average, with notable stats

Tyler Koch 6'6 Sr (Wright State signee) - 22.2 points, 7.3 rebounds 87% FT
Neal Beshears 6'6 Jr - 14.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, 84% FT
Levi Cross 6'2 Sr - 12.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 79% FT, 46% 3FG
Andrew Haney 6'0 Sr - 9.9 points, 8.8 assists, 92% FT
Cody Woodbury 6'0 Soph - 7.0 points, 43% 3FG
Brandt Miller 6'8 Soph
Dustin Durham 6'4 Jr

Strengths: Koch is one of the best players in the entire state, and with a continued great tourney run, has an outside chance at Mr. Basketball. He is a for-sure Indiana All-Star, however. He is virtually unstoppable on the offensive end, as he can shoot it from outside, slash with the best of them, and take mismatched guards into the post and score over them with his size. The Golden Falcons are also a great outside and free throw shooting squad, led by Cross and Woodbury. They have a ton of weapons, scoring over 70 points a night. Their overall size for a 2A team is a big advantage, too, and it shows up as they allow right at 50 points per game. They also have great experience, being in the title game the last two seasons, so they are primed for this challenge.

Weaknesses: There truly aren't many when it comes to Winchester. They seem to have everything going in their favor on most nights. Depth could be considered an issue, as they really only have five main contributors, but those five a very, very good. At the start of the year, team chemistry and behavioral issues were a major factor in starting 4-3, but that obviously seems to be in the past. One problem they have is sometimes letting teams back into games, or playing to the level of their competition, which could be a problem.

Brownstown Central

Coach: Dave Benter led the Braves to an impressive 19-6 mark this season. In his eleventh year at the school, he has compiled a 165-93 record, winning three sectionals, two regionals, and one semi-state title in 2003-2004, falling to Jimtown in the title game.

Scoring Averages: The Braves average 58.4 points per contest and allow 43.7 points against.

Losses: at Scottsburg (3A) 56-52, vs. Barr-Reeve (1A) 65-52, at North Daviess (1A) 42-38, at Paoli (2A) 61-58, at Austin (2A) 60-55, vs. Orleans (1A) 51-39.

Roster: by starters scoring average, with notable stats

Taylor Wischmeier 6'7 Jr - 16.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals, 60% FG, 78% FT
Blake Ayers 6'6 Sr - 12.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 60% FG, 72% FT
Allman Spencer 6'3 Soph - 11.3 points, 45% 3FG (51 made), 85% FT
Michael Leitzman 6'0 Jr - 4.9 points, 3.3 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 71% FT
Ryan Shoemaker 6'0 Jr - 3.5 points, 4.3 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 65% FG, 62% FT
Jeff Turmail 5'10 Sr - 4.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 82% FT, 43% 3FG
Chris Hinton 6'2 Sr - 2.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 75% FT

Strengths: The Braves have two great big boys in Wischmeier and Ayers, which could pose problems for Winchester. In all likelihood, Koch will have to guard one of them, and the hope has to be that their size will get the Winchester star into early foul trouble. They also share the ball well, having three players averaging two and a half assists or better. They control the boards against most teams as well, but Winchester has size as well. They are a solid free throw shooting team, hitting the freebies at well over a 70% clip.

Weaknesses: They are not a low scoring team by any stretch, but compared to the Golden Falcons, the Braves may not have the overall team firepower to keep pace. Their depth could also be an issue. Their outside shooting is an issue as well, outside of Spencer. Turmail shoots it well too, but his chances are limited, hitting only 19 on the year, or less than one a game.

P-Hoops Prediction: With so many weapons and a great star like Tyler Koch, coupled with a hot team with loads of experience, I fully expect the Golden Falcons to handle this test against the Braves and be back in the title game for the third year in a row. Who will they face? Check back later for the breakdown of the other 2A Semi-State game.

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