Big Ten Conference Preview

With the college basketball season a few weeks underway, we have learned a lot about many of the conference teams, but for many of the teams, there are still far more question marks than exclamation points. The anointed heavyweights of the Big 10 have recently had their hats handed to them, looking outmatched against other top national teams. First, Matt Painter's Purdue Boilermakers were humbled at home by Duke in a lopsided 66-50 loss. The following night, Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans looked even worse in getting annhialated by North Carolina, 98-63. The surprising thing was that MSU actually seemed to be playing pretty well, transitioning quickly, going hard after the rebounds, and giving solid effort. Not having forward Goran Suton hurt them some, but he is not worth +/- 35 points by himself. This may say more about how good UNC is, rather than saying much about the Spartan's shortcomings. Nonetheless, I believe the Big Ten will end up as a top natioanl power by season's end and will be, as always, tournament tough due to their tough, grinding conference season. Let's take a look at a short capsule on each team, what I predict as the conference finish, and postseason bids.

The Contenders

Purdue

Matt Painter has done a truly masterful job in his short time at the helm of the Boilers. He has effectively turned around the fortunes of the team from West Lafayette, which outgoing coach, Gene Keady, left in disrepair. The Boilers are led by preseason Big 10 Player of the Year pick Robbie Hummel, a 6'8" sophomore do-it-all forward. Hummel is an offensive threat in every way possible: slashing, shooting from deep, drawing fouls, and setting up his teammates. Through seven games, he is averaging over 14 points, over six rebounds, and neraly three assists per game. Scoring will come in bunches from another sophomore, 6'4" shooter E'Twaun Moore. Moore is another driver who is proficient from three point range (36%). He leads the team in scoring right now, at almost 16 points a game. Size, while a weakness for the Boilers, comes from 6'9" Serbian senior Nemaja Calasan and 6'10" sophomore JuJuan Johnson. Calasan is a bit reluctant to mix it up inside, preferring to stretch defenses with his ability to shoot from deep (20/63 last season, 4/12 this year). Johnson is more apt to play a true post position, but at only 215 pounds, he easily gets pushed around. He can be a pest on defense though, averaging two blocks a game in the early going. Rebounding could be an issue up front, as these two only average a combined 7.7 boards a game. Leadership, grit, and the heart and soul of this team comes from junior guard Chris Kramer. His contributions don't always show up in gaudy numbers on the stat sheet (4.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.1 steals), but he is the engine that makes this train go. Junior guard Keaton Grant (8 ppg) and senior guard Marcus Green (6ppg) provide depth and defensive stops. Newcomer Lewis Jackson, a 5'10" freshman point guard, is a lightning quick jitterbug on the floor. His speed and penetration will give teams headaches as they try to defend him. The loss of 6'8" sophomore Scott Martin to transfer (Notre Dame) will hurt them up front and cost them scoring prowess, but the Boilers are still poised for success.

Michigan State

Tom Izzo's Spartan team still has the makings of a top ten team, despite embarrassing losses to Maryland and North Carolina. They have the makeup of a championship contender, with depth and quality at each position. They are led by 6'8" junior forward Raymar Morgan, an inside-outside threat who is also effective on the defensive end. Through six games, the likely Big 10 first-teamer is averaging nearly 18 points and four rebounds. The floor is controlled by 6'0" sophomore point guard Kalin Lucas, a penetrator who is always looking to set up his teammates for easy buckets, averaging six assists a game. He is a capable shooter from deep (20/45 last year), but is struggling mightily early this year (2/13, 15%). Extra scoring punch and an outside threat is provided by two sophomore guards Chris Allen (9/27 threes, 10 ppg) and Durrell Summers (7/13 threes, 8 ppg). Senior point guard Travis Walton (7 ppg, 3 assists) is a stanbilizing force for the Spartan squad. There is plenty of size up front, but injuries and lack of experience is hurting MSU right now. The Spartans are awaiting the return of injured 6'10" senior center Goran Suton, who will provide a big scoring and rebounding lift upon his return. Marquise Gray (6'8" senior), Idong Ibok (6'11" senior), and Tom Herzog (7'0" sophomore) add more size up front. The most potential the Spartans have in the frontcourt, however, is 6'8" freshman Delvon Roe, a high school teammate of Hoosier Tom Pritchard. Roe is coming off knee reconstruction, but once fully recovered, he will be a force. Lack of experience may hurt MSU, but they have all the parts for a successful run into March.

Wisconsin Badgers

Bo Ryan's Badger squad will once again compete for the Big 10 title. With the graduation over the past two years of stars Alando Tucker, Kammron Taylor, and Brian Butch, one might think Wisconsin would be in for a down season. Not so fast. The Badgers have always seemed to have interchageable parts, transitioning seasmlessly from season to season, and this year seems to be no different. Ryan's squad is led by Trevon Hughes, a powerful 6'0" junior point guard. Hughes is having a great season so far, leading the team in scoring, at 14 points a game, and shooting the light out from deep (14 for 26 on threes). Senior forward Marcus Landry leads the way up front with his inside-ouside game, averaginf 13 points and going nine for 19 from deep early on. Aside from the two stars, Wisconsin has depth that will make them very competitive. Jon Leuer, a 6'10" sophomore shooter (7 for 8 threes) is averaging 10 points so far. Guards Jason Bohannon and Joe Krabbenhoft combine for over 16 points and ten boards a game, solid outside shooting, toughness, and leadership. All Big 10 fans know that Bo Ryan will have his team ready to play, tough to beat, and primed to upset some of their fashier opponents come tournament time.

The Potentials

Ohio State

At 4-0 in the early season, Thad Matta's Buckeyes are looking better than many expected. With so many consistently losses to early entries in the NBA Draft (Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Daequan Cook, Kosta Koufous), it would appear from the outside to be an impossible task to field consitently competitive teams. The Buckeyes, however, seem to be doing just that. Bringing in another loaded recruiting class, including William Buford, Anthony Crater, Walter Offutt, JUCO transfer Jeremie Simmons, and number one player in the nation BJ Mullens, Ohio State has truly reloaded. A pair of sophomore guards, Evan Turner and Jon Diebler, lead the Buckeyes offensively, scoring 14 and 13 points per game, respectively. Turner is the more physical guard, seen by his seven boards a game, while Diebler is the outside bomber, knocking down 13 of 28 (47%) three point tries so far. The biggest surprise for the Buckeyes so far has to be the play of unheralded sophomore 6'8" forward Dallas Lauderdale. The forgotten man in last years' top recruiting class, Lauderdale is making his presence felt this year, averaging eight points, five boards, and an amazing 4.5 block per game early on. Buckeye fans have to be somewhat disappointed with the play of 6'5" junior guard David Lighty, the holdover stud from the Oden class. After averaging nearly ten points a game as a sophmore, his output in most areas is down this year. He has gone down to 7.8 ppg, from 2.4 assists to 1.5, and has missed nine of his first ten threes. Expect him to turn it around, as he is too talented a player to remain in this slump. The big fish of the freshman class, very literally, is the 7'0" center Mullens. He is still figuring things out, but will be an absolute force when he does. Early on, the Buckeyes have the look of a tournament team.

Minnesota

Tubby Smith's arrival in the Twin Cities was much heralded upon it's announcement last year, and he has not disappointed. At 7-0 already and with a quality win over Virginia in the Big10-ACC Challenge, the Golden Gophers are a team characterized by promise and potential. Smith's crew is led by 6'3" junior guard Lawrence Westbrook, averaging 14 points and shooting 35% from three so far. He is a versatile slasher with a nice touch from outside. IU fans will unfortunately remember their other top guard, Blake "Big Shot" Hoffarber, who dashed the Hoosiers Big Ten Tourney hopes with a desperation fadeaway last season. Hoffarber is putting up ten points a game and shooting 40% from downtown in the early going. A big surprise for the Gophers comes from unheralded freshman center Colton Iverson, continuing a tradition of bruising big men at Minnesota. Iverson is averaging nearly ten points, five rebounds, and two blocks a game. Versatitly, leadership, and athleticism are added by junior forward Damian Johnson, senior forward Jamal Abu-Shamala, and sophomore guard Al Nolen, all scoring right around eight points per game. Freshman big man Ralph Sampson III is also making a contribution early, scoring six a game, to go along with four boards. With Tubby at the helm, Minnesota fans have to be pleased with the turnaround of Gopher basketball and potential of this squad.

Illinois

Bruce Weber and the Illini look to rebound from last years' disappointing season with a team full of young athletes, and plenty of upperclassmen with leadership. At 6-1 so far, they appear to be on a redemption tour. Possibly the biggest surprise in all of the Big 10 is the play of under-the-radar sophomore forward Mike Davis. The 6'10" forward is posting nearly 15 points and ten boards a game after going for 2.6 ppg and 1.8 rpg last season. Not many could have seen this coming! His size and athleticism will pose lots of matchup problems for opposing teams. Another sophomore, powerfully built 6'3", 205 pound guard Demetri McCamey, is another standout for Weber's squad. He does a bit of everything, scoring over 13 points per game, pulling down three boards, and dishing out over four assists, all while being an outside threat (15 for 47). Another sharpshooter is senior guard and fan favorite Trent Meachem. He is averaging almost 11 points a game and has hit 29 of his 75 three point attempts so far. Size is provided by 7'1" sophomore center Mike Tisdale, 6'10" sophomore Richard Semrau, 6'9" sophomore Bill Cole, and 6'7" JUCO transfer Dominique Keller. Tisdale is the standout, and another pleasant surprise, combining post moves and a solid spot up shooting game to average 8.6 points a game, to go along with about five rebound and one block a game. The heart of the squad is fierce chest-bumper, senior guard Chester Frazier. Frazier is not a big offensive threat, but he makes up for his deficiency on that end with tenacious defense and a huge heart. Every team needs a Frazier to be successful, and Weber is happy to have him as a leader. Chester is having his best season to date, going for 6.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, and dishing out an outstanding 7.7 assists per game. Expect the Illini to sneak up on lots of teams this year.

(Very) Dark Horses

Michigan

John Beilein is finally getting his intricate offensive system and tricky 1-3-1 defense installed to his satisfaction in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are 5-2 on the early season, playing a brutal schedule. They upset top five team UCLA, lost closely to Maryland, and got beat in their first of tow matchups with Duke. Led by sophomore sensation, 6'5" guard Manny Harris, averaging a conference leading 21.3 ppg, the Maize and Blue look to be coming into their own in Beilein's second season at the helm. Harris does it all, also pulling down nearly eight boards and dropping off four assists per game. The Wolverines have a Robin to Harris' Batman in junior forward DeShawn Sims. At a versatile 6'8", Sims is putting up almost 15 points and eight rebounds a game. Michigan has a bevy of sharpshooters to compliment this 1-2 punch, including Indiana natives, freshmen Zach Novak and Stu Douglass. Size is added by 6'10" junior forward Zack Gibson and 7'0" freshman Ben Cronin. Sophmore point guard Kelvin Grady has the ability to hold the reins as the floor general. With their unique style of play and two stars, the Wolverines could surprise a lot of Big 10 teams this year and maybe make it back to the tournament after a long drought.

Penn State

Ed DeChellis' Nittany Lions have more potential with this years' team than any in recent memory. At 7-1 and fresh off a two point win over Georgia Tech in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, Penn State has a ton of promise. Led by a pair of excellent combo guards, sophomore Talor Battle and senior Stanley Pringle, the Nittany Lions could be a team to be reckoned with during the conference season. At 5'11", Battle does it all for this team. He is currently putting up over 19 points a game to go along with nearly six assists and boards a game. He is also deadly from outside, knocking down 24 of 54 threes (44%) on the season. Pringle, a 6'1" guard, is another quick guard with anice touch from deep. He is averaging over 15 points so far on 52% from deep (20 of 48). The Lions have an outstanding and experienced senior leader in forward Jamelle Cornley. Undersized as a power forward at 6'5", Cornley gets by on his great strength and desrire. He is having anotehr great season while coming off knee surgery, going for over 14 points a game and seven rebounds. Another deep threat is senior Danny Morrisey, a 43% long bomber putting up about seven points a game. Size and depth are provided by Andrew Jones (6'9"), Jeff Brooks (6'8"), and David Jackson (6'7"). With their three stars, the Nittany Lions will have a chance to compete in the upper echelon of the Big 10.

Northwesten

The Wilcats are off to a solid start this year, going 5-1 with a close loss to Butler at Hinkle Fieldhose. They represented the conference well, defeating Florida State 73-59 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge. Led by guard 6'3" Craig Moore (15.5 ppg, 21 for 41 from three) and 6'8" forward Kevin Coble (12.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Bill Carmody's team has some significant upside this year. Sophomore point guard Michael Thompson runs the show at point guard, averaging nearly ten points and three assists a game. John Shurna, a 6'8" inside-outside freshman forward, provides scoring and deep shooting (8.5 ppg, 39% from three). There is also plenty of size in Kyle Rowley, Davide Curletti, Luka Mirkovic, Ivan Peljusic, all standing over 6'8". Northwestern will probably not be in the running for the Big 10 title, but their strong team may be the roadblock that other contenders must get through to win it.

The Bottom Feeders

Iowa

Todd Licliter's Hawkeyes are still in the rebuilding process after taking over for Steve Alford. Iowa has some nice pieces in place to compete in the conference, but they are probably still a year or two away from being a serious contender. The Hawkeyes are led by four outstanding guards in Anthony Tucker, Matt Gatens, Jake Kelly, and Jeff Peterson. Tucker leads the way at nearly 14 points per game, while the other three are all right under ten each. Kelly, a Carmel native, is the most versatile of the four and is an excellent defender with his 6'6" lanky frame. Big bruising sophomore, 6'7" Jerryd Cole, is not fully recovered from offseason knee surgery, which really hinders the hopes of the Hawkeyes. They do not have much depth up from aside from 6'8" senior Cyrus Tate, who is not much of a scoring threat. There is more size, but it is very inexperienced. The lack of frontcourt depth is the Achilles heel of this squad, and will likely prevent them from consistently challenging the top teams in the conference.

Indiana

Heartbreaking, but true, the Hoosiers have fallen on tough times in the wake of former coach Kelvin Sampson's firing amidst scandal and deception. The cupboard was very literally bare as new coach, and potential savior, Tom Crean took the helm. Inheriting a team returning under three points and three rebounds from the previous season because for transfers and expulsions, Crean is truly starting from scratch. The baby Hoosiers have shown some promise in the early going, beating tournament teams like IUPUI and Cornell, but the hope for IU fans lies in how hard these youngsters play, and the fact that the program is being rebuilt from shambles in the right way. At 4-3, the Hoosiers may be looking at their last winning record for some time as they will soon take on quality squads like Gonzaga, TCU and Kentucky before getting into conference play. There are many bright spots on the team to build around for the future, starting with 6'9" freshman power forward Tom Pritchard. A high school teammate of Michigan State star Delvon Roe, Pritchard is playing above expectations early on, averaging 14.1 points and 7.6 rebounds a game for IU. The other lone double figures scorer is Vincinnes JUCO transfer Devan Dumes (11.9 ppg), a Decatur Central product. Five other freshman provide contribute for the Hoosiers, starting with 6'4" guard Nick Williams, averaging just under ten points and over five boards a game. Other youngters making an impact are guard Verdell Jones, forward Malik Story, sharpshooter Matt Roth, and walk-on point guard Daniel Moore. The hope for the future is present in Bloomington, and the incoming top ten recruiting class only solifies that hope. Even with the tough season ahead, what Coach Crean has been able to do under sanctions in recruiting, and more importantly, in reuniting Hoosier Nation, will pay dividends for years to come.

Predicted Finish

1. Michigan State (NCAA Tourney; 3 seed)
2. Purdue (NCAA Tourney; 4 seed)
3. Wisconsin (NCAA Tourney; 5 seed)
4. Ohio State (NCAA Tourney; 7 seed)
5. Illinois (NCAA Tourney; 8 seed)
6. Minnesota (NCAA Tourney; 8 seed)
7. Michigan (NIT)
8. Penn State (NIT)
9. Northwestern (NIT)
10. Indiana (no postseason)
11. Iowa (no postseason)